The demand of the insurance population is still growing, based on the growth of real salaries
“Social Economic Research Center” conducted measurements of consumer sentiment in the financial markets in January-April, including climate of the insurance services consumers. These measurements became the basis for clarifying the forecasts for insurance over the next one and a half years.
The results of the forecast modeling of the insurance market show that the demand for insurance (the number of those who intend to buy one or another insurance policy) in January-April exceeded last year’s figure by 10%. This is despite the fact that in the spring of last year, the demand for insurance services increased by 24% against the same level of 2019.
Calculations show that at the end of 2021 the number of insurers in Russia will grow tentatively by 20%, in 2022 the growth rate for insurance will remain at 20-23% per year.
The dynamics of the demand for insurance services
The demand for life insurance in recent years hesitated in wide limits. We observed the peaks of demand for it in 2016 and 2018, the decline in demand for it came to autumn 2019 and April 2020. Since the spring of 2020, the population’s interest in life insurance in general has a tendency to increase.
According to our forecasts, in 2021, the growth of interest in life insurance in Russia can be about 22%. Thus, sales of life insurance in Russia will also grow.
The demand of the fully comprehensive insurance (CASCO) in the Russian Federation in 2021
according to our adjusted estimates, the demand for insurance of Casco vehicles of the population in 2021 will increase by 36%. Such significant growth is due primarily to the growth of demand for new cars. Recall that at the end of January-April, according to AEB, the sales growth of new cars in Russia exceeded 24% in relation to last year.
Also earlier, on our resource, an analytical article was published the results of sales of new cars in 2021, in which we discussed in detail the car 2021 with our expert Maxim Chernov.
The demand of the population of voluntary medical insurance (VMI) in Russia in 2021
the demand of the population for voluntary medical insurance has ceased to grow from the beginning of 2020. The greatest fall in the demand of the population at the VMI fell on April 2020. The decline in the demand for this type of insurance was overcome in December 2020, after which interest in the VMI among Russians began to recover.
Calculations show that in 2021, the demand for VMI among the population can grow by 24%.
The demand of the population on the mortgage and real estate insurance in the Russian Federation 2021
second half of 2020 and 2021 became the time of sharp increase in the demand of the population for real estate – apartments, houses and cottages, as well as land. That is why in January-March 2021 we saw a sharp surge in interest in housing insurance.
Basing on our estimates, the demand for insurance of apartments and other real estate in 2021 will grow by 49%.
Although the insurance was not injured from the pandemic in 2020, even showing the figure in numbers by almost 4% on the results of 2019, many business segments in Russia had to be difficult, but some of them have already recovered, others continue to recover Therefore, we expect the insurance industry will continue its positive trend in 2021-2022.
Forecasts for the growth of demand for insurance in 2022
According to our estimates, in 2022 we expect
- an increase in life insurance segment in Russia – up to 25%,
- reduction of growth in sales of fully comprehensive insurance,
- perspectives of market of voluntary medical insurance for 2022 are more humble – growth of demand on VMI may be about 7%,
- slowdown in demand growth for estate insurance for the level less than 30%.
We will follow the dynamics of the insurance market in the future. Stay with us on the information and analytical portal Calmins.com!
Prepared and approved by expert insurance market D.Sc. Economics., Ph.D., Professor Zubets A.N.